Why a 16 seed will finally beat a 1 seed

It is the holy grail of college basketball. The one feat that we all want to see happen, as long as it doesn't happen to our team.

There is nothing else like it in any other sport. Only March madness allows the possibility of it happening. It has never happened. Yet.

Even though they are 0-112 right now, one day a 16 seed is going to beat a 1 seed.

There have been several close calls, including last year when Syracuse survived UNC Asheville 72-65.  Murray State took Michigan State to overtime in 1990 before losing 75-71.

In 1989, two 1 seeds almost fell, only to hang on by a point. Georgetown center Alonzo Mourning blocked two potential Princeton game winners to secure a 50-49 win. Oklahoma had to battle back from a 17-point deficit, take the lead under two minutes remaining, and deflect a half-court shot to survive with a 72-71 win.

Six 2 seeds have lost, including two last year (Missouri and ... sigh .... my Duke Blue Devils). Most year's there is only a negligible difference between the 2's and 1's. That is especially the case this year.

Do you seriously think any of the 1 seeds is incapable of losing? Gonzaga hasn't beaten anyone of note. Kansas lost to a horrible TCU team. Indiana and Louisville have both lost head-scratching games to teams they should have blown out.

It could happen. This is the year.

Here's how each 1 seed could lose their opening round game, linking together their loses with the wins of the team they will face, ordered by longest to shortest chain.

Louisville lost to Villanova lost to Providence lost to DePaul lost to Gardner Webb lost to Campbell lost to North Carolina A&T.

Kansas lost to TCU lost to Texas Tech lost to Arizona State lost to DePaul lost to Western Kentucky.

Indiana lost to Wisconsin lost to Virginia lost to Old Dominion lost to James Madison.

Gonzaga lost to Illinois lost to Missouri lost to Texas A&M lost to Southern.

Perhaps not surprisingly, Gonzaga is tied for the shortest chain, despite only having two losses all year long. Perhaps a bit surprisingly, Indiana also has the shortest chain.

The advance statistics agree for the most part. Louisville has a 1.3% chance of losing, Indiana a 2.9%, Gonzaga a 3.9% and Kansas a 4.9%. As Lloyd from Dumb and Dumber said, "So you're telling me there's a chance!"

One year it is going to happen. This year has seen a lot of turbulence for the top teams. Why can't it be this year?