Why a 16 seed will finally beat a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament

It has to happen at some point, right? They are 0-108, as in 16 seeds have lined up against 1 seeds over 100 times and have never been able to pull off that upset. There have been four very close games, but somehow the power house school is always able to pull out the win.

Oddly enough, though a 16 seed has never grabbed a win, a 15 seeds have four wins, but none has happened since 2001. All four wins happened in a span of 10 years (91-01) - Richmond over Syracuse (91), Santa Clara over Arizona (93), Coppin State over South Carolina (97) and Hampton over Iowa State (01).

Could this be the year that the ultimate Goliath falls? It seems hard to fathom, but one year it is going to happen and that game will be famous (or infamous depending on your perspective). So how exactly could this upset happen?

NCAA basketball statistic guru Ken Pomeroy loves to think about the historic upset. After crunching the numbers, he has found that three of the best 16 seeds ever are in this year's field, though strangely enough two of them played in one of the play-in games. Lamar and Vermont are ranked 1st and 5th among all current and historic 16 seeds. UNC-Asheville is the 6th best ever.

So with that in mind, why is it even feasible that one of this year's 16 seeds could do the unthinkable and take down one of the giants in college basketball?

Kentucky vs. Western Kentucky
This is the one that everyone (outside of Kentucky fans) would love to see happen. Kentucky has only lost two games this season, but is there a slimmer of hope for the Hilltoppers of WKU based on the Wildcats loss to Indiana earlier this year.

Here's the win-loss chain for WKU and UK:

Western Kentucky def. Southern Illinois def. Illinois State def. Northern Iowa def. Iowa def. Indiana def. Kentucky

Likelihood: Is there a chance lower than zero? According to the stats, the actual percentage is 2.1, but I think that's too high.

Long Island vs. Michigan State
The Blackbirds of Long Island play a fun, fast, frenetic pace of basketball, which will clash with the Spartans physical Big Ten style of play. Maybe LIU gets hot behind the arc and MSU plays more like the team ranked outside the top 25 in the preseason.

Here's the win-loss chain for LIU and MSU:

Long Island def. Lafayette def. Penn State def. Illinois def. Michigan State

Likelihood: If you notice the chain is considerably shorter than Kentucky's. That is the case with the rest of the teams as well. The Kenpom percentage is 3.7. It's not much, but it's not zero.

Vermont vs. North Carolina
This is the one I would love to see and the one that Ken Pomeroy's stats say is the most likely to happen. I has less to do with UNC and more to do with the strength of the Catamounts, but Pomeroy teased his post with the headline "Why UNC will lose in the First Round."

Here is the win-loss chains for Vermont and UNC:

Vermont def. Siena def. Princeton def. Florida State def. North Carolina

Likelihood: Oh, how I would love to see this happen. After John Henson went down in the ACC tournament, the Tar Heels have not been the same. They are a completely different team on defense with their leading shot blocker. His health and availability for this game is something to keep an eye on. The stats say they have a 10.3% chance of being the historic team, but I still can't imagine it happening.

UNC-Asheville vs. Syracuse
This has to be the most intriguing of all the match-ups. UNCA is, as stated earlier, one of the best 16 seeds ever. They are playing, without their starting center, a weakened 1 seed. While Kentucky has looked dominate in their 2 loss season, Syracuse seems to have gotten by with smoke-and-mirrors. No one has really bought them as a dominate team and they have been hounded by issues, self-inflicted and otherwise all season. Will they be the one?

Here's the win-loss chain for UNCA and SU:

UNC-Asheville def. Presbyterian def. Cincinnati def. Notre Dame def. Syracuse

Likelihood: It's still a long shot, a really long shot, but this one could happen. Syracuse were at a 9.5% chance of upset, before Fab Melo was ruled academically ineligible. Asheville lost to NC State by 9, UNC by 16 (scoring 75 on both the Wolfpack and Tar Heels) and UCONN by 10. They are 5th in the nation in scoring per game. It is not inconceivable that the Bulldogs could take down the Orange.

Having said all that, there is no way I'm picking any 16 seed to win their opening round game. That's a once-in-a-lifetime magic moment that no one is going to predict ... except for the non-sports fan who picks a bracket based on their favorite mascot or places they would like to visit.

Just to be fair, the 2 seed most likely to fall is Duke (22.2%), followed distantly by Kansas (8.2), Missouri (5.8), and Ohio State (4.9).

Lehigh, the Blue Devils' opening round opponent, is the highest rated 15 seed (even higher than some 13 seeds) and has famously not lost a game this year by double digits, including a 9-point loss to number 1 seed Michigan State. Duke has not really been dominate in very many games. With Lehigh's tendency to keep it tight and Duke's inability to blow teams out, this could be a scary match-up for me.

It will also be a game I will get to see live with my family. The ticket price dropped low enough online that we were able to get tickets for all four of us. I want to see history made in this tournament, just not at this game.

Let the madness begin.